We part with 2007 with mixed feelings. Our economy
continued to grow at a rapid pace, and according to preliminary
estimates achieved an 8.7% growth rate in 2007. However, this was also
a year, which put the strength of our financial system to test. Recent
turmoil that affected financial systems worldwide has reached
Kazakhstan as well. Events like this underscore the degree to which
capital markets have grown to rely on one another.
Increased volatility of the financial markets and poor visibility of
prospects of the global economic growth have contributed to the
downgrade of Kazakhstan's sovereign rating by several rating agencies.
Tightened funding conditions have adversely impacted the ability of
Kazakh banks to attract external financing. As a result, it is
expected that the Kazakh economy will moderate its growth in 2008.
The authorities are fully aware of these challenges; they are prepared
to take decisive and coordinated steps to mitigate the potential
adverse effects of tightened global credit conditions, and to adopt
the structural measures needed to solidify recent progress and to
strengthen the Kazakh economy.
The Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the National Bank and
the Financial Supervision Agency (FSA) have developed a rigorous plan
for coordinated and coherent effort by all government agencies,
regulators, and the banking system aimed at alleviating pressures
arising from tightened funding conditions in global capital markets.
Maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing the
systemic risk that may arise in financial markets is central to the
National Bank's mission. The National Bank will act to ensure price
stability and sustainable growth. Monetary policy will be conducted
with the primary goal of containing inflation at levels below 10%.
A healthy banking system is important to the economic stability of
Kazakhstan. The National Bank will continue to support the banking
system by engaging in open market operations, providing loans to
individual institutions and in certain cases, currency swaps. It will
do so in a fair and transparent manner that will avoid a general
bail-out of the system, and that will spread the costs equitably
amongst the various parties, not least bank owners.
The Government will also encourage banks to explore alternative
sources of finance, such as equity listings and sale of convertible
bonds, or other equity-like products on local exchange. Banks will
also explore the possibility of securitization of their credit
portfolios. We believe that such efforts will help banks strengthen
their balance sheets. FSA and the National Bank are prepared to
support commercial banks in these efforts and help them, within
limits, to lessen their dependence on external debt financing. In so
doing, the authorities will keep foremost in mind the need to find and
keep the proper balance between getting to a soft landing on the
banking situation; not impairing the credit rating of the country; and
avoiding creating moral hazard by the careful use of reserves and the
assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Changing conditions in capital markets require adaptive response from
government agencies and regulators alike. Vigilant monitoring is
required for early detection and timely response to potential threats
to the financial system. Our plan includes improving governance and
transparency of the banking system so as to allow more effective
market discipline, and strengthening bank supervision by the FSA; this
requires curtailing related party lending, improving the technical
capabilities of the Agency and increasing its staff, and improving the
collection of market data critical for timely decision making. FSA
will actively encourage banks to review and revise their risk
management practices and conduct stress testing of their portfolios.
The National Bank and FSA will also carefully track changes in the
world financial markets, conduct cogent analysis, and prepare policy
recommendations for the Government.
As commercial banks tighten their lending operations in response to
the changes in the global funding conditions, some creditworthy
borrowers may not get access to financing. Such effects can be
observed in certain areas of in-process construction today.
Construction companies heavily rely on bank credit. Due to the funding
issues, even reputable construction companies are facing difficulties
with completing construction of multiple-family housing units.
Providing adequate housing to citizens of Kazakhstan is one of the
basic duties of the Government. In order to alleviate pressures on the
construction industry, support job growth and to help mortgage owners
secure their housing, the Government will provide alternative sources
of financing via several government-owned vehicles. A pilot project
was launched in 2007 for Astana region, with more regions planned for
inclusion in 2008.
Maintaining healthy job growth and supporting small-and-medium
enterprises is one of the goals for 2008. The Government will address
this by enhancing development of Public-Private Partnerships.
Regulatory and legal framework is currently under revision to
accommodate the needs of these vehicles. We believe that joining
resources of the private and public sector in various sectors of
Kazakh economy will produce measurable results and promote sustainable
growth of the economy.
To preserve social stability, the Government will also put in place
appropriate safety net measures designed with fiscal prudence in mind
to mitigate the impact of the expected slow down in growth on the
welfare of the poorest Kazakh people, especially in lagging regions.
Overall, although the situation remains fragile and some aspects of
international funding issues are outside of our control, we believe
that current challenges create an opportunity for the Government to
take full advantage of these issues and push through structural
reforms that will meaningfully contribute to the sustained and
equitable economic growth of the country.